Home
Illusion of Validity
Articles via Google Scholar
All
Articles published since
1990 |
1991 |
1992 |
1993 |
1994 |
1995 |
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011
"confirmation bias leading to overconfidence: why investors are prone to the illusion of validity "
Shefrin (2000)
"Psychologists Hillel Einhorn and Robin Hogarth (1978) have studied the general issue of why people persist in beliefs that are invalid, that is, why they succumb to the illusion of validity . Einhorn and Hogarth suggest that people do so because they are prone to search for confirming evidence, not disconfirming evidence."
Shefrin (2000)
Key Paper
EINHORN, H.J. and R.M. HOGARTH, 1978. Confidence in judgment: Persistence of the illusion of validity. Psychological Review. [Cited by 149 ]
AASTEBRO, T. and G.G. CHEN, The Statistical Accuracy of a Judgmental Process that Evaluates the Commercial Success of Inventions . cass.city.ac.uk. [not cited]
ABERER, K., 2003. Report on the First International Conference on Ontologies, Databases and Applications of Semantics … . SIGMOD Record. [not cited]
ARMSTRONG, J.S., 1980. The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecasting . Technology Review. [Cited by 4 ]
ARNOTT, D., A Taxonomy of Decision Biases . sims.monash.edu.au. [not cited]
BARCLAY, J., 1999. Employee Selection: A Question of Structure . Personnel Review. [Cited by 3 ]
BAZERMAN, M.H. and H. SONDAK, 1988. Judgmental limitations in diplomatic negotiations . Negotiation Journal. [Cited by 3 ]
BEECHER-MONAS, E. and E. GARCIA-RILL, 2002. Danger at the Edge of Chaos: Predicting Violent Behavior in a Post-Daubert World . Cardozo Law Review. [not cited]
BEISPIEL, E., Fehlbelegung und Fehlbelegungspruefung in der Psychiatrie . thieme.de. [not cited]
BEN-SHAKHAR, G., et al. , 1998. Seek and ye shall find: test results are what you hypothesize they are . Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. [Cited by 4 ]
BOEHM, L.E., Reliability of Proxy Response in the Current Population Survey . amstat.org. [not cited]
BRODIE, M.L. and C. SCIENTIST, 2002. The Grand Challenge in Information Technology and the Illusion of Validity. CAiSE. [Cited by 1 ]
BUDESCU, D.V., et al. , 2003. The effects of asymmetry among advisors on the aggregation of their opinions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. [Cited by 3 ]
BUSBY, J.S. and K. PAYNE, 1998. The Situated Nature of Judgement in Engineering Design Planning . Journal of Engineering Design. [not cited]
BUSBY, J.S. and K. PAYNE, 1998. The situated nature of judgement in engineering design planning . Journal of Engineering Design. [Cited by 3 ]
BUSBY, J.S., 1997. The limited informativeness of resource discrepancy feedback to designers . International Journal of Operations and Production …. [Cited by 2 ]
BUSBY, J.S., 1999. Problems in error correction, learning and knowledge of performance in design organisations . IIE Transactions. [Cited by 4 ]
BUSHYHEAD, J. and J. CHRISTENSEN-SZALANSKI, 1981. Feedback and the illusion of validity in a medical clinic . Med Decis Making. [Cited by 3 ]
CARE, C., I. CARE and C.O.A. DISEASE, 2004. Sources of variability in uncertain medical decisions in the ICU: a process tracing study . Qual. Saf. Health Care. [Cited by 2 ]
CARTY, A., 2003. Scandinavian Realism and Phenomenological Approaches to Statehood and General Custom in … . European Journal of International Law. [not cited]
COFF, R.W. and K.J. LAVERTY, 2001. Roadblocks to Competitive Advantage: How Organizational Constraints and Individual Decision Biases …. The Journal of High Technology Management Research. [Cited by 1 ]
COLENDA, C.C., J.C. LEIST and S.R. RAPPT, 1996. SURVEY OF PHYSICIAN PRACTICES FOR DEMENTIA PATIENTS . INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GERIATRIC PSYCHIATRY. [Cited by 1 ]
DAVIS, F.D., J.E. KOTTEMANN and W.E. REMUS, 1991. What-if Analysis and The Illusion of Control . System Sciences, 1991. Proceedings of the Twenty-Fourth …. [not cited]
DELONG, J.B., et al. , 1988. The survival of noise traders in financial markets . [Cited by 105 ]
DEMPSEY, O.P. and H.L. BEKKER, 2002. 'Heads you win, tails I lose': a critical incident study of GPs' decisions about emergency admission … . Family Practice. [Cited by 3 ]
DENRELL, J., The INTELLIGENCE OF SUPERSTITION . fek.uu.se. [not cited]
DENRELL, J., 1999. The Myths of Management: Organizational Learning and the Illusion of Validity. [Cited by 1 ]
DENRELL, J., et al. , 2003. Vicarious Learning, Undersampling of Failure, and the Myths of Management . Organization Science. [Cited by 14 ]
DOYLE, J.K., 1997. The cognitive psychology of systems thinking . System Dynamics Review. [Cited by 17 ]
DRUZDZEL, M.J., 1996. Explanation in Probabilistic Systems: Is It Feasible? Will It Work? . Proceedings of the Fifth International Workshop on …. [Cited by 2 ]
EINHOM, H.J. and R.M. HOGARTH, 1978. Confidence in Judgment: Persistence of the Illusion of Validity. Ps), chological Review. [Cited by 3 ]
EINHORN, H.J. and R.M. HOGARTH, 1978. Confidence in judgment: Persistence of the illusion of validity. Psychological Review. [Cited by 149 ]
EINHORN, H.J. and R.M. HOGARTH, 1981. Behavioral decision theory: processes of judgment and choice . Annual Review of Psychology. [Cited by 159 ]
ELIO, R. and F.J. PELLETIER, 1994. The effect of syntactic form on simple belief revisions and updates . Proceedings of the 16th Annual Conference of the Cognitive …. [Cited by 5 ]
EUGENE, O.R., Effects of DSS, Modeling, and Exogenous Factors on Decision Quality and Confidence . ieeexplore.ieee.org. [not cited]
FIEDLER, K., J. SCHMID and T. STAHL, 2002. What Is the Current Truth About Polygraph Lie Detection? . Basic and Applied Social Psychology. [not cited]
FINNILA-TUOHIMAA, K., et al. , 2005. Connections between experience, beliefs, scientific knowledge, and self-evaluated expertise among … . Scandinavian Journal of Psychology. [not cited]
FISHER, K.L. and M. STATMAN, 2000. Cognitive biases in market forecasts . Journal of Portfolio Management. [Cited by 5 ]
FOROUGHI, A., W.C. PERKINS and M.T. JELASSI, 1995. An empirical study of an interactive, session-oriented computerized Negotiation Support System(NSS) . Group Decision and Negotiation. [Cited by 11 ]
FRAMEWORK, T., Persistent Preferences for Product Attributes: The Effects of the Initial Choice Context and … . journals.uchicago.edu. [not cited]
GALLETTA, D., R.C. KING and D. RATEB, 1993. TIDE EFFECT OF EXPERTISE ON SOFTWARE SELECTIO N . DATABASE. [not cited]
GARCIA-MARQUES, T., et al. , 2004. Positivity Can Cue Familiarity . Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin. [Cited by 2 ]
GIGERENZER, G., 1991. From tools to theories: A heuristic of discovery in cognitive psychology . Psychological Review. [Cited by 51 ]
GOIDFRIED, M.R. and C. ROBINS, 1982. On the Facilitation of Self-Efficacy . Cognitive Therapy and Research. [Cited by 10 ]
GOLDMAN, R.L., Is There a Cognitive Basis for Religious Belief? . springerlink.com. [not cited]
GOLDVARG, E. and P.N. JOHNSON-LAIRD, 2001. Naive causality: a mental model theory of causal meaning and reasoning . Cognitive Science. [Cited by 28 ]
GRUSCHKE, T. and M. JOERGENSEN, 2005. Assessing Uncertainty of Software Development Effort Estimates: The Learning From Outcome Feedback . [Cited by 1 ]
HAEUBL, G. and V. TRIFTS, 2000. Consumer Decision Making in Online Shopping Environments: The Effects of Interactive Decision Aids . Marketing Science. [Cited by 133 ]
HARRIS, G.T. and M.E. RICE, 1998. Violent Behavior . Psychiatr Serv. [not cited]
HINSZ, V.B., 1990. Cognitive and consensus processes in group recognition memory performance . Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. [Cited by 32 ]
HOGARTH, R. and S. BARCELONA, 2005. Deciding Analytically or Trusting your Intuition? The Advantages and Disadvantages of Analytic and … . The Routines of Decision Making. [Cited by 1 ]
HOGARTH, R.M., 2004. Is confidence in decisions related to feedback? Evidence-and lack of evidence-from random … . In the beginning there is a sample: Information sampling as …. [Cited by 4 ]
HOGARTH, R.M., In the beginning there is a sample: Information sampling as …. Is confidence in decisions related to feedback? Evidence-and lack of evidence-from random … . [Cited by 1 ]
HORGAN, D.D., 1992. Children and chess expertise: The role of calibration . Psychological Research. [not cited]
JOERGENSEN, M. and D. SJOEBERG, 2000. The Importance of NOT Learning from Experience . Proceedings of European Software Process Improvement. [Cited by 6 ]
JOERGENSEN, M. and D.I.K. SJOEBERG, 2002. Impact of experience on maintenance skills . Journal of Software Maintenance and Evolution Research and …. [Cited by 16 ]
JOERGENSEN, M., et al. , Human Judgement in Effort Estimation of Software Projects . csr.uvic.ca. [Cited by 1 ]
JORGENSEN, M., 2004. A review of studies on expert estimation of software development effort . Journal of Systems and Software. [Cited by 28 ]
JUSLIN, P., H. OLSSON and A. WINMAN, 1998. The calibration issue: theoretical comments on Suantak, Bolger, and Ferrell (1996) . Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. [Cited by 9 ]
KAHNEMAN, D., et al. , 1982. Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases . print.google.com. [Cited by 1561 ]
KARELAIA, N., The Role of Redundant Information in Choice: The Lure of Consistency . econ.upf.edu. [not cited]
KARGER, C.R. and P.M. WIEDEMANN, 1994. Pitfalls and stumbling blocks in negotiation processes . … Juelich, Programmgruppe Mensch, Umwelt, Technik, Arbeiten …. [not cited]
KEE, F., 2000. Confidence limits and the limits of confidence . QJM. [not cited]
KEE, F., 2000. Clinical decision making in nephrology... renal function might not be the most important thing to …. J Nephrol. [not cited]
KHANNA, T., R. GULATI and N. NOHRIA, 1998. The dynamics of learning alliances: competition, cooperation, and relative scope . Strategic Management Journal. [Cited by 171 ]
KORIAT, A., R. LEVY-SADOT and I.R. NO, 1999. Processes underlying metacognitive judgments: Information-based and experience-based monitoring of … . Dual process theories in social psychology. [Cited by 12 ]
KRISTENSEN, H., T. GAERLING and C. LAW, 1996. Determinants of buyers' aspiration and reservation price . [Cited by 8 ]
LATTIMORE, P. and A.N.N. WITTE, Editors'Note . popcenter.org. [not cited]
LICHTENBERG, J.W., 1997. Expertise in counseling psychology: A concept in search of support . Educational Psychology Review. [Cited by 8 ]
MARCH, J.G., L.S. SPROULL and M. TAMUZ, 2003. Learning from samples of one or fewer . Quality and Safety in Health Care. [Cited by 146 ]
MC, P. and L. SECHREST, 2003. The use and misuse of the term “experience” in contemporary psychology: a reanalysis of the … . PHILOSOPHICAL PSYCHOLOGY. [not cited]
MCCAFFREY, R.J., 1996. The Practice of Forensic Neuropsychology . print.google.com. [Cited by 6 ]
MEIER, S., P.R. MCCARTHY and R.R. SCHMECK, 1984. Validity of self-efficacy as a predictor of writing performance . Cognitive Therapy and Research. [Cited by 15 ]
MELONE, N.P., et al. , 1995. Effects of DSS, modeling, and exogenous factors on decision quality and confidence . HICSS (3). [not cited]
MIEG, H.A., 2001. The social psychology of expertise: case studies in research, professional domains, and expert roles . print.google.com. [Cited by 23 ]
OLIVER, D. and J. ROOS, 2005. Decision Making in High Velocity Environments: The Importance of Guiding Principles . Organization Studies. [not cited]
PAULK, M.C., The Rational Planning of (Software) Projects . dcs.ed.ac.uk. [not cited]
PHILIPPAKIS, A.S., 1988. Structured What If Analysis in DSS Models . Proc. of the Twenty-First Annual Hawaii Int. Conf. on System …. [Cited by 5 ]
PIDDUCK…, A.B., The Grand Challenge in Information Technology and the Illusion of Validity . springerlink.com. [not cited]
PRABHU, J. and G.J. TELLIS, 2000. Do consumers ever learn? Analysis of segment behavior in experimental markets . Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. [not cited]
RUHM, D.L., et al. , Elicitation and Elucidation of Risk Preferences . casact.org. [not cited]
SELECTION, H.V.A.S., Teaching and Learning in Medicine. SPECIAL ARTICLE . [not cited]
SHEFRIN, H., 1999. Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing . print.google.com. [Cited by 77 ]
SHEFRIN, H., 2002. Chapter 6. Sentimental Journey: The Illusion of Validity . [not cited]
SHEFRIN, H., et al. , vard. Beyond Greed and Fear . Finance and the Psychology of Investing, H. [Cited by 31 ]
SHEFRIN, Hersh, 2000. Beyond Greed and Fear : Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing .
SINGH, D.T. and P.P. SINGH, 1997. Aiding DSS users in the use of complex OR models . Annals of Operations Research. [Cited by 2 ]
SLEVIN, D.P., et al. , 1998. CONFIDE: A Collective Decision-Making Procedure Using Confidence Estimates of Individual Judgements . Group Decision and Negotiation. [not cited]
SUMMERS, B., T. WILLIAMSON and D. READ, 2004. Does method of acquisition affect the quality of expert judgment? A comparison of education with on- … . Journal of Occupational and Organizational Psychology. [Cited by 2 ]
TERPSTRA, D.E., A.A. MOHAMED and E.J. ROZELL, 1996. A model of human resource information, practice choice, and organizational outcomes. Human Resource Management Review. [Cited by 3 ]
THEOBALD, M., OVERCONFIDENCE, PERCEIVED SIGNAL DEPENDENCY AND MOMENTUM . bss2.bham.ac.uk. [not cited]
TODD, P.A. and I. BENBASAT, 1994. The influence of decision aids on choice strategies under conditions of high cognitive load . IEEE Transactions on Systems Man and Cybernetics. [Cited by 16 ]
TRASKALIK, M., IMPORTANCE OF BEHAVIORAL FINANCE FOR PRACTITIONERS . opf.slu.cz. [not cited]
TURK, D.C. and P. SALOVEY, 1985. Cognitive structures, cognitive processes, and cognitive-behavior modification: I. client issues . Cognitive Therapy and Research. [Cited by 4 ]
TVERSKY, A., 1996. On the Reality of Cognitive Illusions . Psychological Review. [not cited]
WALTER, S.D., et al. , 1998. Confidence in lifesupport decisions in the intensive care unit: A survey of healthcare workers . Crit Care Med. [Cited by 11 ]
WANG, P., 1996. Heuristics and normative models of judgment under uncertainty . International Journal of Approximate Reasoning. [Cited by 7 ]
WEBER, J.A., Merging The Metaphysical and Epistemological Aspects of Uncertainty: A Theoretical Vision . pamij.com. [not cited]
WELLS, G.L., M.R. LEIPPE and T.M. OSTROM, 1980. Guidelines for empirically assessing the fairness of a lineup . Law and Human Behavior. [Cited by 35 ]
WILLIAMSON, J.E., THE POSITIVE HIT RATE AS A MEASURE OF FORECAST ABILITY James E. Williamson School of accountancy San … . sbaer.uca.edu. [not cited]
WOMEN, P.O.N., 1989. A COGNITIVE LEARNING PERSPECTIVE ON WOMEN BECOMING EXPERT MANAGERS Dianne D. Horgan . JOURNAL OF BUSINESS AND PSYCHOLOGY. [not cited]
WOOD, B.P., 1999. Decision making in radiology . Radiology. [Cited by 3 ]